Suchergebnisse

Despite the benefits associated with the free movement of people, governments often try to regulate urban immigration by constraining the agency of potential rural out-migrants in moving to cities and/or in expanding their agency to enable them to stay put. We apply an institutional framework centring on push–pull and retain–repel factors to migration intentions of potential migrants in northern Kazakhstan. We model the effects of these factors on migration intentions with Bayesian Networks and expand the baseline model with three policy scenarios. The results suggest that the effects of policies constraining urban in-migration, e.g. limiting access to affordable housing, are attenuated by social networks and reverse remittances. The supply of accessible and appropriate information on possible income and true housing costs in urban areas presents a promising road to reduce intentions of rural out-migration. Better schools and decentralised tertiary education can also reduce the migration intentions of rural residents. ; En dépit des avantages associés à la libre circulation des personnes, les gouvernements tentent souvent de réguler l'immigration urbaine en limitant la capacité de potentiels émigrants ruraux à se déplacer vers les villes et / ou en élargissant leur capacité à rester sur place. Nous appliquons un cadre institutionnel centré sur les facteurs push-pull et les facteurs de rétention-répulsion liés aux intentions de migration de potentiels migrants dans le nord du Kazakhstan. Nous modélisons grâce aux réseaux bayésiens les effets de ces facteurs sur les intentions de migration et élargissons le modèle de référence avec trois scénarios de politiques publiques. Les résultats suggèrent que l'effet des politiques publiques limitant l'immigration urbaine, comme par exemple limiter l'accès à des logements à loyer abordable, est atténué par les réseaux sociaux et par les transferts de fonds inversés. Le fait de fournir des informations accessibles et pertinentes sur ce que l'on peut gagner, en termes de revenus, et sur ce que l'on doit dépenser pour se loger dans les zones urbaines représente une voie prometteuse pour réduire les intentions d'exode rural. De meilleures écoles et un enseignement supérieur décentralisé peuvent également réduire les intentions de migration des résidents ruraux.

AbstractDespite the benefits associated with the free movement of people, governments often try to regulate urban immigration by constraining the agency of potential rural out-migrants in moving to cities and/or in expanding their agency to enable them to stay put. We apply an institutional framework centring on push–pull and retain–repel factors to migration intentions of potential migrants in northern Kazakhstan. We model the effects of these factors on migration intentions with Bayesian Networks and expand the baseline model with three policy scenarios. The results suggest that the effects of policies constraining urban in-migration, e.g. limiting access to affordable housing, are attenuated by social networks and reverse remittances. The supply of accessible and appropriate information on possible income and true housing costs in urban areas presents a promising road to reduce intentions of rural out-migration. Better schools and decentralised tertiary education can also reduce the migration intentions of rural residents.

Despite the benefits associated with the free movement of people, governments often try to regulate urban immigration by constraining the agency of potential rural out-migrants in moving to cities and/or in expanding their agency to enable them to stay put. We apply an institutional framework centring on push–pull and retain–repel factors to migration intentions of potential migrants in northern Kazakhstan. We model the effects of these factors on migration intentions with Bayesian Networks and expand the baseline model with three policy scenarios. The results suggest that the effects of policies constraining urban in-migration, e.g. limiting access to affordable housing, are attenuated by social networks and reverse remittances. The supply of accessible and appropriate information on possible income and true housing costs in urban areas presents a promising road to reduce intentions of rural out-migration. Better schools and decentralised tertiary education can also reduce the migration intentions of rural residents.

Несмотря на ожидаемую нехватку пригодных для расширения сельскохозяйственного производства земель в мире, процессы забрасывания сельскохозяйственных земель широко распространены. Вовлечение в оборот некоторых неиспользуемых в настоящий момент сельскохозяйственных земель может способствовать раскрытию аграрного потенциала территорий. Однако в настоящее время детерминанты, влияющие на вовлечение в оборот заброшенных земель, изучены недостаточно. Для лучшего понимания поведенческих факторов среди сельхозпроизводителей, связанных с вовлечением в оборот заброшенных сельскохозяйственных земель, исследование было сфокусировано на одном из регионов России - Республике Бурятия, где процессы забрасывания сельскохозяйственных земель широко распространены, а практики сельскохозяйственного производства могут иметь региональную специфику. В рамках исследования в 2018 г. было проведено 149 очных интервью с сельскохозяйственными производителями в Республике Бурятия, по результатам которых заполнялись структурированные анкеты. Анкета включала сведения о социально-экономических характеристиках сельскохозяйственных производителей, вопросы о том, как опрашиваемые оценивали уровень коррупции как барьера, препятствующего вовлечению в оборот заброшенных земель, и каковы поведенческие намерения сельхозпроизводителей относительно сельскохозяйственного землепользования в ближайшие пять лет. Выраженное намерение сельхозпроизводителя использовать заброшенный земельный участок выступило в качестве целевой моделируемой переменной в байесовской сети, а климатические и социально-экономические переменные - в качестве факторов. Анализ показал, что одним из значимых барьеров, препятствующих вовлечению в оборот заброшенных земель, выступило субъективное восприятие коррупции, ассоциируемой с нечестным принципом распределения земель. Исследование также показало, что сельхозпроизводители, принадлежащие к группе коренного этнического населения, реже проявляли намерения по вовлечению в оборот заброшенных земель по сравнению с представителями некоренного этнического населения. Наиболее предпочтительными с точки зрения аграрного землепользования явились земельные участки, на которых уровень закустаренности и залесенности был выражен незначительно или закустаренность и залесенность отсутствовали. Полученные результаты создают основу для оценки региональной политики по регулированию сельскохозяйственного землепользования, которая должна быть направлена на повышение мотивации сельскохозяйственных производителей по вовлечению в оборот заброшенных сельскохозяйственных земель и сохранению при этом экосистемных услуг в регионах и странах, где проблема забрасывания земель стоит особенно остро, в частности в России. ; Despite the looming land scarcity suited for agricultural expansion, farmland abandonment is widespread globally. The recultivation of some abandoned farmlands could unlock the untapped agricultural potential. Yet, little is known about the determinants of recultivation. To better understand the behavioral intentions of farmers regarding the recultivation of abandoned lands, we concentrated on the Buryat Republic in Russia, where agricultural land abandonment is widespread and farmers with different ethnicities carry out diverse agricultural practices. We conducted 149 face-to-face interviews with the farmers in the Buryat Republic in 2018 and filled a structured questionnaire on farm's and farmers' socioeconomic characteristics, perceived corruption, and farmers' behavioral intentions regarding expected land use. We modeled the intention of recultivation with the Bayesian networks. The Bayesian networks analysis showed that perceived corruption was considered to be a barrier to recultivation. Our study also showed that non-Buryat ethnic and young farmers are more likely to recultivate abandoned land. Abandoned farmlands without or with a low degree of afforestation were preferred for recultivation. In sum, our study showed how behavioral aspects of political trust, the farm's and farmer's characteristics, in combination with regional and locational characteristics, may shape farmers' decisions on land use. The results provide an important ground to assess regional land-use policies, which should foster the recultivation of abandoned lands while preserving ecosystem services in the global hotspots of farmland abandonment, such as Russia.

Changes in land management and climate alter vegetation dynamics, but the determinants of vegetation changes often remain elusive, especially in global drylands. Here we assess the determinants of grassland greenness on the Mongolian Plateau, one of the world's largest grassland biomes, which covers Mongolia and the province of Inner Mongolia in China. We use spatial panel regressions to quantify the impact of precipitation, temperature, radiation, and the intensity of livestock grazing on the normalized difference vegetation indices (NDVI) during the growing seasons from 1982 to 2015 at the county level. The results suggest that the Mongolian Plateau experienced vegetation greening from 1982 to 2015. Precipitation and animal density were the most influential factors contributing to higher NDVI on the grasslands of Inner Mongolia and Mongolia. Our results highlight the dominant effect of climate variability, and especially of the precipitation variability, on the grassland greenness in Mongolian drylands. The findings challenge the common belief that higher grazing pressure is the key driver for land degradation. The analysis exemplifies how representative wall‐to‐wall results for large areas can be attained from exploring space–time data and adds empirical insights to the puzzling relationship between grazing intensity and vegetation growth in dryland areas. ; European Union's Framework Programme for Research and Innovation ‐ Horizon 2020 (2014‐2020) ; Alexander von Humboldt Foundation of Germany ; Peer Reviewed

International agricultural trade is key to improving global food security. It ensures access to more diversified foods (e.g. Krivonos and Kuhn 2019 ), acts as a safety net against local production shortfalls (Glauben et al. 2022) and helps make use of regional climatic or resource-related production advantages. While local production and short supply chains can reduce transport costs, they do not necessarily equate to resilient food systems or lower carbon footprints (Stein and Santini 2022). Currently, though, international agricultural trade is facing supply chain disruptions and rising world market prices resulting from the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, increasing global food demand and extreme weather events. Both are threatening already strained food security, in particular in import-dependent, low-income regions. Geopolitical risks, such as the China- US trade war and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, are further rattling the food market. As the world's largest consumer of agricultural goods, China's trade strategies influence world markets, with ripple-down effects for consumers around the world, particularly in the Global South. This policy brief aims at shedding light on China's current market actions, and the likely short- and mid-term developments and their impacts. We argue for moderation in response to short-term shocks. Excessive mobility and trade restrictions as well as extreme stockpiling should be avoided. These harm the trade system's overall capacity to resist further and more serious global challenges related to population growth and climate change.

Der internationale Agrarhandel ist ein Schlüsselfaktor für die globale Ernährungssicherheit. Er schafft ein vielfältigeres Nahrungsangebot (e.g. Krivonos und Kuhn 2019), sichert gegen lokale Produktionsausfälle ab (Glauben et al. 2022) und hilft, sich regionale Produktions- und Handelsvorteile zu Nutze zu machen. Auch wenn eine regionale Produktion und kurze Lieferketten Transportkosten reduzieren können, begünstigen sie aber nicht zwangsläufig resilientere oder gar klimaneutralere Ernährungssysteme (Stein und Santini 2022). In jüngerer Zeit sehen sich die Agrarmärkte weltweit mit zusätzlichen Herausforderungen und Unsicherheiten konfrontiert. Lieferkettenengpässe und Preissteigerungen in Folge der andauernden COVID - 19 Pandemie, steigende Nahrungsmittelnachfrage sowie zunehmende Extremwetterereignisse in Folge des Klimawandels belasten insbesondere in importbedürftigen Regionen mit niedrigen Pro-Kopf-Einkommen die ohnehin kritische Ernährungssituation zusätzlich. Zudem stellen jüngere geopolitische Risiken wie etwa der Handelskonflikt zwischen den USA und China oder der russische Einmarsch in die Ukraine den internationalen Agrarhandel auf den Prüfstand. Vor diesem Hintergrund nimmt China als weltgrößter Konsument und Importeur von Nahrungsmitteln eine zentrale Position im globalen Handelsgeschehen ein. Einfluss hat das Land somit auch auf Preisentwicklungen an internationalen Märkten und für globale Versorgungslagen, insbesondere im globalen Süden. Aus globaler Sicht kann insofern nur von ausgeprägten Mobilitäts- und Handelsrestriktionen sowie übermäßiger Lagerhaltung abgeraten werden. Alles dies schwächt das Sicherheitsnetz des globalen Agrarhandels und damit die Reaktionsfähigkeit des Handelssystems auf globale Herausforderungen im Zusammenhang mit dem Bevölkerungswachstum und Klimawandel.